Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Same Pullback, Different Recovery – Structural Comparison of Two Major Public Blockchain Networks

This post is for educational and observational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All decisions and responsibility are your own.

Breaking above the gray divergence line tells me the trend is turning up. But if macro breaks and we slip back below it, the next focus is the light-green zone below. This is why I keep talking about that gray line. Here are the 6 charts I have been tracking from July to September 2026.

1. Major Network Weekly – Gray Divergence Break

Major Network Weekly gray divergence breakout 86477

Major Network Weekly – Gray line breakout around 86,477 – TradingView

Weekly chart of the major network. Price is around 86,475, bouncing 6.55% right at 86,477. I call this gray line the backbone. When we hold above it, I read it as uptrend. When we fall below it, I read it as downtrend.

From late 2021 to the drop from 126K to 58K – about 55% down – candles stayed under it. Now we are pushing above it. This looks just like December 2018 and July 2022, when the sky-blue line broke below the yellow line and the inverse alignment was finishing. That is usually when the market tries to reclaim the green line.

I am watching it closely though. If WTI pushes over 105 from 96.77, or the 10-year jumps from 4.3% toward 4.96%, or liquidity drains – WRESBAL around 2.85T falling and RRPONTSYD around 2B getting depleted – the 24/7 market sells first. I saw it in March 2020 and March 2023. If we lose gray again, I am watching the light-green zone around 42,430 and 33,281.

2. Secondary Network Weekly – Sky-Blue Zone

Secondary Network Weekly sky-blue zone 2748

Secondary Network Weekly – Holding in sky-blue zone, 2,748.3

Secondary network is holding the sky-blue zone as support and moving up. Around 2,748.3, up 3.92% from the low near 1,773.4. It is fighting to leave the undervalued area. I also want you to keep the gray line in mind here – it is the strongest support and resistance barometer.

For me, this network shows psychology better than the major one. The major one is noisy for bottoms. My indicator has not shown a clear bottom there yet. But this one printed an ATL/ATH crossing – more objective. That move from 1,773.4 to 2,748.3 looks like sentiment coming back into a network people actually use.

3. ATH Timeframe – Green & Sky Cross SELL

Major Network ATH line crossing SELL 86475

Major Network – ATH Line Crossing, Selling Accuracy, 86,475
Secondary Network ATH line crossing SELL 2744

Secondary Network – ATH Line Crossing, Selling Accuracy, 2,744.8

On the ATH timeframe, when the green line and sky-blue line cross, I have seen Selling Accuracy show up – Sell-1 in 2018, Sell-2 in 2021. The blue line tops first, then pulls back. The major network topped near 158,174 on the blue line, dropped from 126K to 58K, now back to 86,475. The secondary network topped near 4,969, failed to reclaim 4,800, dropped to 2,744.

This is a record of where psychology broke in one cycle. Early July 2026, when the major US indices were holding highs while this market pulled back, was the phase right after that ATH SELL structure.

4. ATL Timeframe – Black & Red Cross BUY, Only Secondary Has It Now

On the ATL timeframe, when the black line and red line cross, I have seen PURCHASE ACCURACY – Buy+2 in 2019 and 2023. What matters now: in September, the secondary network printed that ATL BUY signal. The major one did not. That tells me the secondary is more undervalued at the moment.

The major network is just short of it. Almost there, but not yet. One finished the cross, the other is still incomplete. That tiny difference is creating the temperature gap between the two right now.

5. Trust ETFs – Buying Into the Black Line

Major Trust ETF Daily buying into black line 51

Major Trust ETF Daily – Buying into black line 51.03, from 48.97
Secondary Trust ETF Daily black line 20.67

Secondary Trust ETF Daily – Testing black line 20.67, from 20.76

Looking at the two Trust ETFs, I see buying coming into the black line – what I call the backbone. One moving from 48.97 toward 51.03, the other trying to reclaim 20.67 from 20.76. On the daily, the sky-blue (10-day), yellow (20-day), green (60-day), and red (120-day) lines are turning from inverse to direct alignment – something I tracked from 2025 into July 2026.

Watch whether that black line breaks and then gets retested as support. If you track it with oil, the dollar, and rates, you get the answer earlier.

What could cause a pullback?

Not the war headline, but the oil behind it (WTI 96.77, Brent 101.21 now). Not the Fed headline, but the yield behind it (10-year 4.3% to 4.96%). Not the bank headline, but the crack in the payment rails (TGA 905B, RRP 2B depletion). If oil spikes, inflation moves. If yields spike, liquidity dries up first. When that happens, the first thing sold is the 24/7 market. It happened in March 2020 and March 2023. So I do not look at one line. I look at the whole flow.

Summary

Breaking above gray tells me the trend turned up. 86,475 holding above gray is the same as 2018 and 2022 inverse completion points. If we fall back below gray, I am watching 42,430 and 33,281.

Secondary network is in the sky-blue zone, pushing up. ATL timeframe black and red cross BUY printed in September only on the secondary, not the major – more undervalued. Gray remains the strongest barometer.

Both Trust ETFs at 48.97 and 20.76 show buying into the black backbone. Track oil, DXY at 100.15, and 10-year at 4.3% together and you see it earlier. For me, October is when macro inertia and backbone cross – late stage of inverse alignment.

For educational purposes only, not investment advice. Based on public TradingView and FRED data as of September 22, 2026 – major network near 86,475, secondary near 2,748, Trusts near 48.97 and 20.76, WTI 96.77, DXY 100.15. Please verify independently. Updated: September 23, 2026

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